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| Credit: NOAA |
2015 Hurricane Season
We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin. NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.
- NOAA: Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year
- NOAA: Predicts above-normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
- NOAA Predicts an above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season
- Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2015 - PDF Format
Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching
BELOW-NORMAL ATLANTIC PREDICTED
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an below-normal season which is what actually resulted. The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average Atlantic hurricane season that produced nine tropical cyclones, eight named storms, the fewest since the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an below-normal season which is what actually resulted. The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average Atlantic hurricane season that produced nine tropical cyclones, eight named storms, the fewest since the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Looking Back at 2014
In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season was below average.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2014 Prediction | 2014 Actual |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 8 - 13 | 8 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 3 - 6 | 6 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 1 - 2 | 2 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 40 - 100 | 67 |
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The 2014 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms more than double the average. Hurricanes exceeded the top estimate, and there were 9 major hurricanes. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was well above normal.
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2014 Prediction | 2014 Actual |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 14 - 20 | 22 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 7 - 11 | 16 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 3 - 6 | 9 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 95-160 | 198 |
Looking Ahead to 2015
As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post, 2015 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2015 predictions.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2015 Prediction | CSU 2015 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 6-11 | 7 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 3-6 | 3 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 0-2 | 1 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 40 - 85 | 40 |
NOAA’s 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 0 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2015 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 15 -22 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 7 - 12 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 5- 8 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 110 - 190 |
NOAA’s 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook is calling for a 70 percent chance of 15 to 22 named storms, which includes 7 to 12 hurricanes, of which 5 to 8 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season.
Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index
An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications,
an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an
above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an
exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
Hurricane Season Dates
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF)
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